{"id":8449,"date":"2022-05-18T17:13:01","date_gmt":"2022-05-18T16:13:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/qpol.qub.ac.uk\/?p=8449"},"modified":"2022-05-18T17:13:01","modified_gmt":"2022-05-18T16:13:01","slug":"much-more-than-meh-the-2022-northern-ireland-assembly-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.qub.ac.uk\/qpol\/much-more-than-meh-the-2022-northern-ireland-assembly-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Much more than meh: The 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly Elections"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On 5 May Sinn F\u00e9in won first place in the NI Assembly elections \u2013 both in first-preference votes (29%), and in seats won (27 of the 90 MLA positions in play, i.e., 30%). As reported across the world, that is the first time any Irish nationalist party has headed the polls in region-wide elections in Northern Ireland, earning Sinn F\u00e9in the right to nominate the First Minister. In 1922, the Northern Ireland Parliament had voted to secede from the Irish Free State under Article 12 of the Anglo-Irish Treaty<\/a>. Northern Ireland\u2019s 100th<\/sup> birthday<\/a> has therefore coincided with the reversal of its founding rationale. A novel political entity, forged to secure an Ulster unionist and Protestant demographic and electoral majority, no longer has either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Democratic Unionist Party (the DUP) came second in first-preference votes (21.3%), a significant loss compared with what it had won in 2017<\/a> (28.1%). But the DUP lost just three seats compared to 2017, winning 25 seats (25\/90 = 27.8%). This disproportional outcome occurred because its candidates benefitted from lower-order vote-transfers from those who had backed the \u00fcber-hardline Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), which had campaigned with \u201cNo Sea Border<\/a>\u201d beside its name on the ballot paper, and won 7.6% of the first-preference vote. The TUV won just one seat (1\/90=1.1%), returning its party leader, because its candidates received very few transfers from those who had voted for other unionist parties\u2019 candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Alliance Party came third in first-preference votes (13.5%), but won 17 seats (17\/90 = 18.8%). The party more than doubled its seat-share compared to 2017. It disproportionally benefitted from lower-order transfers from other parties. Its success was partly at the expense of the Green Party, which lost the two MLAs it had won in 2017. Alliance is formally neutral on the question of whether Northern Ireland should remain in the United Kingdom or reunify with the rest of Ireland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The headline-grabbing achievements of Sinn F\u00e9in and Alliance should not obscure the DUP\u2019s robust performance in seats-won. Despite the battering the party took to its standing and prestige before the election it stopped the bleeding \u2013 at least for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To continue reading, please click here. <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Article originally appeared on the LSE British Politics and Policy<\/a> website.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About the Authors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

John Garry<\/strong><\/a> is Professor of Political Behaviour at Queen\u2019s University Belfast and leads the The Democracy Unit at Queen\u2019s University Belfast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brendan O\u2019Leary<\/a><\/strong> is Lauder Professor of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania, Honorary Professor of Political Science, Queen\u2019s University Belfast, and Fulbright Fellow to Galway University 2021-22.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

James Pow<\/strong><\/a> is Lecturer in the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics, Queen\u2019s University Belfast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The featured image<\/a><\/em> has been used courtesy of a <\/em>Creative Commons license. <\/em><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Northern Ireland Assembly election of May 2022 was transformational, despite small shifts in the magnitudes of seats won by the two dominant blocs. John Garry, Brendan O\u2019Leary and James Pow discuss the results.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2431,"featured_media":8452,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8449","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics-and-democracy"],"mb":[],"acf":{"authors":{"simple_value_formatted":"