{"id":8206,"date":"2022-01-07T15:27:46","date_gmt":"2022-01-07T15:27:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/qpol.qub.ac.uk\/?p=8206"},"modified":"2022-01-07T15:27:46","modified_gmt":"2022-01-07T15:27:46","slug":"state-of-stormont-can-northern-ireland-trust-in-truss","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.qub.ac.uk\/qpol\/state-of-stormont-can-northern-ireland-trust-in-truss\/","title":{"rendered":"State of Stormont: can Northern Ireland trust in Truss?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The new year in Northern Ireland has opened much the same as the last, with DUP First Minister Paul Givan warning that Stormont\u2019s collapse is \u201cinevitable\u201d unless changes are made to post-Brexit regulations for the region<\/a>. When the Northern Ireland protocol came into force in January 2021, it created new checks on goods arriving from Great Britain. This triggered protests<\/a> from unionists, who felt the arrangements separated them from the rest of the UK, and undermined the union. The resulting turmoil led to three unionist party leaders resigning in 2021<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Donaldson emerged from this chaos as the latest DUP leader, and sought to establish order and his authority by, ironically, threatening more disorder. He vowed to withdraw from Stormont unless swift progress was made in ongoing EU-UK talks over the protocol. Many commentators read this as Donaldson simply \u201ctalking tough\u201d to win back voters that polls showed were deserting the DUP over its flawed handling of the Brexit process. Speaking in September, Donaldson implied that he would act on his threat within a matter of weeks<\/a>. Many weeks have since passed, and so Givan\u2019s more recent comments appear to be political posturing \u2013 providing a substitute for risky action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile in UK-EU talks, Brussels has offered significant compromise on the operation of the protocol<\/a>, but with no reciprocal shift from London. Indeed, the government\u2019s lead negotiator, Lord Frost, actually escalated British demands by insisting that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) no longer has any oversight in Northern Ireland. This was a red line issue for the EU in terms of assuring the integrity of any agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before Christmas, there were signs that London was backing away from its demands on the ECJ<\/a>, followed by Frost\u2019s unexpected resignation. He cited wider concerns about the direction of government policy, including over COVID, as the cause of his departure<\/a>, but it seemed that Frost was simply unwilling to sully his reputation as \u201cMr Brexit\u201d by overseeing any retreat on the protocol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Boris Johnson then made a possibly shrewd move by passing Frost\u2019s portfolio over to Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, a prospective rival for the leadership of the Tory party. By making Truss carry the can for an eventual compromise with Brussels, Johnson could now concentrate on restoring his battered authority<\/a>. However, Truss may decide to follow Johnson\u2019s past example, playing hardball on Brexit to win the Tory right and the keys to No. 10. This probably explains the DUP\u2019s recent return to sabre-rattling on the protocol, as it tries to influence the path that Truss takes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elections ahead<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The DUP is also positioning itself with a view to the May elections at Stormont. Recent polls suggest<\/a> that Sinn F\u00e9in will win the most seats -\u2013 a hammer blow to unionists. The sense that Brexit is edging Northern Ireland out of the union and towards a united Ireland would be greatly enhanced by Sinn F\u00e9in becoming the leading party in Northern Ireland. Polls in the Republic of Ireland suggest that Sinn F\u00e9in is on course to win the next election<\/a> there, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This explains why the DUP is so desperate to rally despondent unionist voters, showing that it is standing firm on the protocol, and can influence the outcome of UK-EU talks. The party\u2019s fate, therefore, is in Truss\u2019s hands. If she refuses to compromise with Brussels, she will undoubtedly win support on the Tory right. But Truss may also have noted the limited appetite among the wider electorate for continual wrangling with the EU<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Truss\u2019s reputation has suffered damage from recent revelations<\/a> of fine dining at the taxpayers\u2019 expense in a private members club. However, she might try to spin this to her advantage. Truss\u2019s expensive lunch was a work event, and as then Trade secretary, she would stress that she was hosting officials from the UK\u2019s largest trading partner, the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite supporting the Remain campaign, Truss has become the Brexiteers\u2019 latest darling by negotiating a series of new trade deals. But a US-UK trade arrangement is the prize that Brexiteers most desire, and here difficulties with Northern Ireland have not helped. President Biden, a proud Irish-American, has consistently made clear<\/a> his concern that ongoing disputes over the protocol threaten the Good Friday Agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps Truss will articulate her own version of \u201cGetting Brexit done\u201d \u2013- finally reaching an accommodation with the EU that resolves the issue of the protocol and other outstanding matters. This could be sold to Brexiteers on the basis that it allows the UK to move on to greater things, not least negotiating a US trade deal, with the Biden administration assured that there is no longer a threat to peace in Northern Ireland. Or will Truss decide that what worked for Johnson will work for her, and that the support of Tory backbenchers is all that matters in terms of advancing a leadership bid?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whatever choice Truss makes, it will certainly have particular repercussions for Northern Ireland, and especially the DUP. However, what is also clear is that running Northern Ireland according to the whims of the DUP or Tory right, does not lead to political stability or longevity of leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Article originally appeared in The Conversation.<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As Liz Truss takes on the Brexit portfolio, Dr Peter McLoughlin asks whether she will finally reach an accommodation with the EU that resolves the issue of the protocol and other outstanding matters.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2461,"featured_media":8209,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8206","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe"],"mb":[],"acf":{"authors":{"simple_value_formatted":"