The Northern Ireland Assembly election on 2 March has not only failed to lead to the establishment of a government, as elections in \u2018normal\u2019 democracies might be expected to do, but has raised broader questions, including that of direct rule from London and, following hot on the heels of Nicola Sturgeon, that of a possible referendum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The most immediate obstacle to the re-establishment of the Sinn F\u00e9in\/Democratic Unionist Party power-sharing government is Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s refusal to do business with Arlene Foster, the DUP leader who they regard as responsible for a major policy mistake relating to the \u2018Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI)\u2019 scheme known as cash for ash, which could potentially have cost taxpayers up to half a billion pounds. Sinn F\u00e9in demand that she \u2018stand aside\u2019 while an inquiry into the handling of the scheme is completed. The DUP, however, is showing little enthusiasm for throwing its leader overboard, especially at the request of bitter rivals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And the RHI issue is just the tip of the iceberg. Sinn F\u00e9in is also annoyed at what it regards as DUP intransigence on a range of issues directly related to the underlying nationalist versus unionist debate, such as Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s desire for an Irish Language Act.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So, it is no surprise that reaching a post-election agreement is difficult. Sinn F\u00e9in collapsed the power-sharing government on a ticket of being unable to work with the DUP and a demand for Foster\u2019s head. The electorate, however, when offered the ingredients of democracy decided to serve up pretty much the same dish again, albeit somewhat colder: Sinn F\u00e9in and the DUP retained their positions as the biggest parties in the land. Under Northern Ireland\u2019s power-sharing rules, the leaders of both parties should assume the joint prime ministerial positions (first minister and deputy first minister).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If this does not happen within three weeks of the 2 March election day, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, James Brokenshire, is obliged to call another election. Although the increase in turnout at the election (up 10 percentage points) suggests an appetite for democratic engagement, yet another election would surely try the patience of many voters. The alternative is for Brokenshire to introduce \u2018direct rule\u2019 from London, essentially suspending devolution and power sharing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With London rather busy on other matters at the moment, the idea of running Northern Ireland and engaging in protracted talks for many months with squabbling Sinn F\u00e9in and DUP leaders is somewhat unpalatable. So, Brokenshire will be hoping for a deal between the two parties and will be threatening another imminent election in order to focus minds and expedite a deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The issue of Brexit, however, adds a whole other layer of complexity to matters. Nicola Sturgeon and Scottish nationalists have demanded a referendum for Scotland to leave the UK in the \u2018new\u2019 context of a Brexit in which Scotland voted to remain. Similarly, Gerry Adams and many Irish nationalists are demanding a referendum for Northern Ireland to leave the UK (and unite with the rest of Ireland) in the context of a Brexit in which Northern Ireland voted to remain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A demand for such a referendum in Northern Ireland (or \u201cborder poll\u201d) is also in the context of nationalists performing well in the Assembly election and unionists performing poorly. Sinn F\u00e9in increased its vote share by four percentage points and the DUP declined by one point. Only a tiny number of votes separate the parties, with the DUP ahead by just 0.2 percent. To some extent, this good performance by Sinn F\u00e9in boosts its case for a \u2018border poll\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Interestingly, one of the largest parties in the Republic \u2013 Fianna Fail \u2013 has further raised the salience of the issue by stating that it is working on a detailed blueprint for how a united Ireland would operate. However, it is on the basis of opinion poll evidence rather than purely electoral success that the Secretary of State will decide whether to hold a border poll or not. Such polling evidence typically shows low levels of support for Irish unity, though this is unlikely to curb Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s enthusiasm for a referendum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Overall, Northern Ireland\u2019s post-election political landscape is highly uncertain and, particularly in the wake of Sturgeon\u2019s announcement, mirrors the constitutional uncertainty of post-Brexit UK as a whole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n