{"id":732,"date":"2024-03-12T20:25:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-12T20:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.qub.ac.uk\/pb-happ\/?p=732"},"modified":"2024-03-12T20:25:00","modified_gmt":"2024-03-12T20:25:00","slug":"why-is-the-senedd-changing-their-electoral-system","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.qub.ac.uk\/pb-happ\/2024\/03\/12\/why-is-the-senedd-changing-their-electoral-system\/","title":{"rendered":"Why is the Senedd changing their electoral system?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Bill (or Senedd Reform Bill) is an extensive bill currently going through the Senedd with the goal of modernising the Senedd (Llywodraeth Cymru, 2023). As part of this bill, all members of the Senedd (MSs) will be elected by a closed list proportional representation method (Senedd Cymru, 2024). This blog post aims to discuss why the dominant Welsh Labour Party government would want to change the Senedd elections to this closed list system, with the reasons being less obvious than it first appears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Senedd – National Assembly for Wales – Cardiff Bay, taken by Brown E., 2015. Available at: https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/ell-r-brown\/19418965801\/in\/photostream\/<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For democracy!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Senedd Reform Bill aims to better serve the people in Wales, by increasing its members and abilities to make decisions to reflect its increase in responsibilities since its establishment in 1999 (Llywodraeth Cymru, 2023). While this goal is not referring to the proposed closed list system aspect of this bill exclusively, it is reasonable to see the logical throughline from having increased responsibilities, to having increased MSs, to needing a change in the type of electoral system to vote for that increased number of MSs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another point is that this system is simpler, with only one ballot compared to the current two (Davies and Deans 2024), and with the closed list system that the Welsh public are already familiar with, in opposition to the proposed single transferable vote and flexible list systems that were proposed by the Expert Panel on Assembly Electoral Reform (Hayman, 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aswell as this, moving to a fully proportional representation-based system will make the Welsh Senedd more representative, given that in general PR systems increases the likelihood that voters have an elected representative that they voted for, compared to a single member plurality system (SMP) (Everitt and Pitre, 2007, p. 110). A pure PR system will also create a more accurately representative Senedd by increasing competitiveness of elections (in comparison to SMP), which increases campaigning, which increases turnout (Karp et al.<\/em>, 2003).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

…Or is it?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The current Welsh Labour government have not been particularly forthcoming in relation to this topic. The only reason for the new electoral system actually presented by Llywodraeth Cymru is the first reason mentioned above, yet that reason is the one that this blog post could not find any academic evidence to support. Instead, there are examples of parliaments changing their number of members without a need for changing the electoral system, including in Northern Ireland (Sargeant and Rycroft, 2022). If we take that this reason for wanting the closed list system is a stretch, and that the Welsh Labour government has not provided other reasons for this, we can then look to other, more dubious reasons for this change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Visiting Colwyn Bay, taken by Corbyn, J., 2019. Available at: https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/jeremycorbyn\/49200430576\/<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Welsh Labour party has been in power in Wales since the establishment of the devolved institution (Evans, 2022). Therefore, it could be seen as a strange move for the party to change the electoral system when the one they currently have works so well for them. This is less surprising when looking at the new system that will be in place. The use of the closed list system means voters will be voting for parties instead of for candidates, without any influence of the candidates on the list (Verge and Wiesehomeier, 2018). This reduces accountability on the behalf of Welsh Labour MSs (McAllister, 2022), which have had some notable issues surrounding accountability recently (Haines, 2024; Price, 2024; Shipton, 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In connection to this, a move towards a closed list system, in which voters vote only for a party, could actually increase Welsh Labour\u2019s domination. As previously stated, they are the party who have been in power for the entirety of the devolved Welsh institutions\u2019 existence, although occasionally in coalition with other parties. Welsh Labour can therefore paint themselves as the only party qualified and capable to do the job, made easier when the qualifications of individual members are removed from questioning by way of the closed list (Buisseret et al.<\/em>, 2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The introduction of a fully PR system in Wales could also be a stepping stone towards a PR system in UK-wide elections, which the UK-wide Labour party are in favour of (Cowan, 2022), given that if it had been in place in the 2019 election the Conservative party would not have had its majority (Electoral Reform Society, 2019). The introduction of a PR focused system in Wales (and the one in Northern Ireland), therefore, could exemplify how PR could be used throughout the UK, benefitting both Welsh Labour and Labour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Labour\u2019s Women\u2019s Conference, Liverpool, UK – 07 Oct 2023, taken by Starmer, K., 2023. Available at: https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/190916320@N06\/53240561562<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Proportionally representing, or consolidating power?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In conclusion, this blog post finds that Welsh Labour, in an attempt to continue their dominance of Welsh politics, have deduced that through specifically a closed list electoral system, they can maintain their power while also appearing to be more open to a system that, at first glance, could reduce said dominance. This blog post believes that a single transferrable vote system would be more advantageous for the Welsh people to be truly democratically represented in the Senedd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

References:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Buisseret, P., Folke, O., Prato, C. and Rickne, J. (2022) \u201cParty nomination strategies in list proportional representation systems\u201d, American Journal of Political Science<\/em>, 66(3), pp. 714-729 [Online] Available at: https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1111\/ajps.12691<\/a> (Accessed 8th<\/sup> March 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cowan, D. (2022) \u201cLabour party conference backs proportional representation\u201d [Online] Available at: https:\/\/www.electoral-reform.org.uk\/labour-party-conference-backs-proportional-representation\/<\/a> (Accessed 8th<\/sup> March 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Davies, D. and Deans, D. (2024) \u201cSenedd: Labour, Plaid back keeping new voting system\u201d [Online] Available at: https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/uk-wales-politics-68485848<\/a> (Accessed 7th<\/sup> March 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Electoral Reform Society (2019) \u201cHow the 2019 election results could have looked with proportional representation\u201d [Online] Available at: https:\/\/www.electoral-reform.org.uk\/how-the-2019-election-results-could-have-looked-with-proportional-representation\/<\/a> (Accessed 8th<\/sup> March 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evans, G. (2022) \u201cBack to the future? Reflections on three phases of education policy reform in Wales and their implications for teachers\u201d, Journal of Educational Change<\/em>, 23(1), pp. 371-396 [Online] Available at: https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10833-021-09422-6<\/a> (Accessed 7th<\/sup> March 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Everitt, J. and Pitre, S. (2007) \u201cElectoral systems and representational issues\u201d in Cross, W. P. (ed.) Democratic Reform in New Brunswick, Google Books <\/em>[Online] Avaiable at: https:\/\/books.google.co.uk\/books?hl=en&lr=&id=njgbWlukLPEC&oi=fnd&pg=PA103&dq=pr+is+more+representative+than+smp&ots=AtKDrxMjbX&sig=6kyAgIFFXkrjRQxEDAcqhQAUAwQ&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=pr%20is%20more%20representative%20than%20smp&f=false<\/a> (Accessed 7th<\/sup> March 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Haines, C. (2024) \u201cWelsh Government dodging accountability over child poverty targets\u201d [Online] Available at: https:\/\/www.brecon-radnor.co.uk\/news\/politics\/welsh-government-dodging-accountability-over-child-poverty-targets-662457<\/a> (Accessed 8th<\/sup> March 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hayman, J. (2024) \u201cSenedd Committee expresses \u201csignificant reservations\u201d about proposed electoral system\u201d [Online] Available at: https:\/\/research.senedd.wales\/research-articles\/senedd-committee-expresses-significant-reservations-about-proposed-electoral-system\/<\/a> (Accessed 7th<\/sup> March 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Karp, J. A., Bowler, S. and Banducci, S. A. (2003) \u201cElectoral systems, party mobilization and turnout: Evidence from the European parliamentary elections\u201d, British Elections & Parties Review<\/em>, 13(1), pp. 210-225 [Online] Available at: https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1080\/13689880308413095<\/a> (Accessed 7th<\/sup> March 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Llywodraeth Cymru (2023) \u201cPlans for modern, more representative Senedd published\u201d [Online] Available at: https:\/\/www.gov.wales\/plans-modern-more-representative-senedd-published<\/a> (Accessed 7th<\/sup> March 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

McAllister, L. (2022) \u201cWales needs a larger Senedd, but a closed list system is not the best way to achieve it\u201d [Online] Available at: https:\/\/constitution-unit.com\/2022\/06\/29\/wales-needs-a-larger-senedd-but-a-closed-list-system-is-not-the-best-way-to-achieve-it\/<\/a> (Accessed 8th<\/sup> March 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Price, E. (2024) \u201cLabour leadership candidates \u2018devoid of accountability\u2019 says Plaid\u201d [Online] Available at: https:\/\/nation.cymru\/news\/labour-leadership-candidates-devoid-of-accountability-says-plaid\/<\/a> (Accessed 8th<\/sup> March 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sargeant, J. and Rycroft, L. (2022) \u201cNorthern Ireland assembly\u201d [Online] Available at: https:\/\/www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk\/explainer\/northern-ireland-assembly<\/a> (Accessed 7th<\/sup> March 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senedd Cymru (2024) \u201cSenedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Bill\u201d [Online] Available at: https:\/\/business.senedd.wales\/mgIssueHistoryHome.aspx?IId=41915<\/a> (Accessed 7th<\/sup> March 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shipton, M. (2024) \u201cThe dodgy donations that have dominated Welsh Labour leadership campaign shows the need for urgent reform\u201d [Online] Available at: https:\/\/nation.cymru\/opinion\/the-dodgy-donations-that-have-dominated-the-welsh-labour-leadership-campaign-shows-the-need-for-urgent-reform\/<\/a> (Accessed 11th<\/sup> March 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Verge, T. and Wiesehomeier, N. (2018) \u201cParties, candidates, and gendered political recruitment in closed-list proportional representation systems: The case of Spain\u201d, Political Research Quarterly<\/em>, 72(4), pp. 805-820 [Online] Available at: https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/full\/10.1177\/1065912918807086<\/a> (Accessed 8th<\/sup> March 2024).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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