Why is the Senedd changing their electoral system?
The Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Bill (or Senedd Reform Bill) is an extensive bill currently going through the Senedd with the goal of modernising the Senedd (Llywodraeth Cymru, 2023). As part of this bill, all members of the Senedd (MSs) will be elected by a closed list proportional representation method (Senedd Cymru, 2024). This blog post aims to discuss why the dominant Welsh Labour Party government would want to change the Senedd elections to this closed list system, with the reasons being less obvious than it first appears.
For democracy!
The Senedd Reform Bill aims to better serve the people in Wales, by increasing its members and abilities to make decisions to reflect its increase in responsibilities since its establishment in 1999 (Llywodraeth Cymru, 2023). While this goal is not referring to the proposed closed list system aspect of this bill exclusively, it is reasonable to see the logical throughline from having increased responsibilities, to having increased MSs, to needing a change in the type of electoral system to vote for that increased number of MSs.
Another point is that this system is simpler, with only one ballot compared to the current two (Davies and Deans 2024), and with the closed list system that the Welsh public are already familiar with, in opposition to the proposed single transferable vote and flexible list systems that were proposed by the Expert Panel on Assembly Electoral Reform (Hayman, 2024).
Aswell as this, moving to a fully proportional representation-based system will make the Welsh Senedd more representative, given that in general PR systems increases the likelihood that voters have an elected representative that they voted for, compared to a single member plurality system (SMP) (Everitt and Pitre, 2007, p. 110). A pure PR system will also create a more accurately representative Senedd by increasing competitiveness of elections (in comparison to SMP), which increases campaigning, which increases turnout (Karp et al., 2003).
…Or is it?
The current Welsh Labour government have not been particularly forthcoming in relation to this topic. The only reason for the new electoral system actually presented by Llywodraeth Cymru is the first reason mentioned above, yet that reason is the one that this blog post could not find any academic evidence to support. Instead, there are examples of parliaments changing their number of members without a need for changing the electoral system, including in Northern Ireland (Sargeant and Rycroft, 2022). If we take that this reason for wanting the closed list system is a stretch, and that the Welsh Labour government has not provided other reasons for this, we can then look to other, more dubious reasons for this change.
The Welsh Labour party has been in power in Wales since the establishment of the devolved institution (Evans, 2022). Therefore, it could be seen as a strange move for the party to change the electoral system when the one they currently have works so well for them. This is less surprising when looking at the new system that will be in place. The use of the closed list system means voters will be voting for parties instead of for candidates, without any influence of the candidates on the list (Verge and Wiesehomeier, 2018). This reduces accountability on the behalf of Welsh Labour MSs (McAllister, 2022), which have had some notable issues surrounding accountability recently (Haines, 2024; Price, 2024; Shipton, 2024).
In connection to this, a move towards a closed list system, in which voters vote only for a party, could actually increase Welsh Labour’s domination. As previously stated, they are the party who have been in power for the entirety of the devolved Welsh institutions’ existence, although occasionally in coalition with other parties. Welsh Labour can therefore paint themselves as the only party qualified and capable to do the job, made easier when the qualifications of individual members are removed from questioning by way of the closed list (Buisseret et al., 2022).
The introduction of a fully PR system in Wales could also be a stepping stone towards a PR system in UK-wide elections, which the UK-wide Labour party are in favour of (Cowan, 2022), given that if it had been in place in the 2019 election the Conservative party would not have had its majority (Electoral Reform Society, 2019). The introduction of a PR focused system in Wales (and the one in Northern Ireland), therefore, could exemplify how PR could be used throughout the UK, benefitting both Welsh Labour and Labour.
Proportionally representing, or consolidating power?
In conclusion, this blog post finds that Welsh Labour, in an attempt to continue their dominance of Welsh politics, have deduced that through specifically a closed list electoral system, they can maintain their power while also appearing to be more open to a system that, at first glance, could reduce said dominance. This blog post believes that a single transferrable vote system would be more advantageous for the Welsh people to be truly democratically represented in the Senedd.
References:
Buisseret, P., Folke, O., Prato, C. and Rickne, J. (2022) “Party nomination strategies in list proportional representation systems”, American Journal of Political Science, 66(3), pp. 714-729 [Online] Available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ajps.12691 (Accessed 8th March 2024).
Cowan, D. (2022) “Labour party conference backs proportional representation” [Online] Available at: https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/labour-party-conference-backs-proportional-representation/ (Accessed 8th March 2024).
Davies, D. and Deans, D. (2024) “Senedd: Labour, Plaid back keeping new voting system” [Online] Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-68485848 (Accessed 7th March 2024).
Electoral Reform Society (2019) “How the 2019 election results could have looked with proportional representation” [Online] Available at: https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/how-the-2019-election-results-could-have-looked-with-proportional-representation/ (Accessed 8th March 2024).
Evans, G. (2022) “Back to the future? Reflections on three phases of education policy reform in Wales and their implications for teachers”, Journal of Educational Change, 23(1), pp. 371-396 [Online] Available at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10833-021-09422-6 (Accessed 7th March 2024).
Everitt, J. and Pitre, S. (2007) “Electoral systems and representational issues” in Cross, W. P. (ed.) Democratic Reform in New Brunswick, Google Books [Online] Avaiable at: https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=njgbWlukLPEC&oi=fnd&pg=PA103&dq=pr+is+more+representative+than+smp&ots=AtKDrxMjbX&sig=6kyAgIFFXkrjRQxEDAcqhQAUAwQ&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=pr%20is%20more%20representative%20than%20smp&f=false (Accessed 7th March 2024).
Haines, C. (2024) “Welsh Government dodging accountability over child poverty targets” [Online] Available at: https://www.brecon-radnor.co.uk/news/politics/welsh-government-dodging-accountability-over-child-poverty-targets-662457 (Accessed 8th March 2024).
Hayman, J. (2024) “Senedd Committee expresses “significant reservations” about proposed electoral system” [Online] Available at: https://research.senedd.wales/research-articles/senedd-committee-expresses-significant-reservations-about-proposed-electoral-system/ (Accessed 7th March 2024).
Karp, J. A., Bowler, S. and Banducci, S. A. (2003) “Electoral systems, party mobilization and turnout: Evidence from the European parliamentary elections”, British Elections & Parties Review, 13(1), pp. 210-225 [Online] Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13689880308413095 (Accessed 7th March 2024).
Llywodraeth Cymru (2023) “Plans for modern, more representative Senedd published” [Online] Available at: https://www.gov.wales/plans-modern-more-representative-senedd-published (Accessed 7th March 2024).
McAllister, L. (2022) “Wales needs a larger Senedd, but a closed list system is not the best way to achieve it” [Online] Available at: https://constitution-unit.com/2022/06/29/wales-needs-a-larger-senedd-but-a-closed-list-system-is-not-the-best-way-to-achieve-it/ (Accessed 8th March 2024).
Price, E. (2024) “Labour leadership candidates ‘devoid of accountability’ says Plaid” [Online] Available at: https://nation.cymru/news/labour-leadership-candidates-devoid-of-accountability-says-plaid/ (Accessed 8th March 2024).
Sargeant, J. and Rycroft, L. (2022) “Northern Ireland assembly” [Online] Available at: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/northern-ireland-assembly (Accessed 7th March 2024).
Senedd Cymru (2024) “Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Bill” [Online] Available at: https://business.senedd.wales/mgIssueHistoryHome.aspx?IId=41915 (Accessed 7th March 2024).
Shipton, M. (2024) “The dodgy donations that have dominated Welsh Labour leadership campaign shows the need for urgent reform” [Online] Available at: https://nation.cymru/opinion/the-dodgy-donations-that-have-dominated-the-welsh-labour-leadership-campaign-shows-the-need-for-urgent-reform/ (Accessed 11th March 2024).
Verge, T. and Wiesehomeier, N. (2018) “Parties, candidates, and gendered political recruitment in closed-list proportional representation systems: The case of Spain”, Political Research Quarterly, 72(4), pp. 805-820 [Online] Available at: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1065912918807086 (Accessed 8th March 2024).
The author of this blog post has chosen a particular interesting topic as the workings of devolution, especially Welsh devolution is often overlooked for the political workings and controversies occurring in Westminster. The information within this blog post is presented cohesively, such as, the author simply stating that reforms are needed within the Senedd to better serve the increasing responsibilities of MS’. Furthermore, it has been interesting to learn that Welsh Senedd elections use two ballots and thus these reforms would only require one ballot within the election. Furthermore, the author presents the argument that by introducing Proportional Representation into the Welsh elections, this would increase both competitiveness and representation. However, the author has introduced a particularly interesting viewpoint that Welsh Labour are proponents of this system as it would remove certain forms of accountability from candidates as voters would instead be voting for the party rather than individual candidates. Additionally, I find it very interesting that the author brings forth the argument that this would further Labour’s domination of Welsh politics as mentioned previously, voters would vote for the party rather than voting to elect individual candidates to the Senedd.
This blog post provided an excellent insight into the current Senedd electoral system and the changes they wish to make. I found the author’s critical insight into the motivation behind the change in electoral systems to be particularly compelling. However, the author mentions that one of the changes that could be dubious is that it would change the ballots to voting for a party instead of voting for a candidate. The author claims that this will reduce transparency and accountability in the Senedd, particularly with the Welsh Labour Party. While this does have merit, that is just a symptom of the Westminster model rather than a dubious attempt to conceal responsibility. A parliamentary model is meant to dilute the role of personality and instead play up the role of political parties. Elected candidates are meant to represent the interests of their party, not of their particular personal beliefs.
This is an extremely interesting blog into an issue that has not garnered the media attention it deserves across the UK. The explanation of the current political system in Wales and the proposed advantages that the new party list system would introduce are extremely insightful as is the author’s criticism of the new system as well as the motivations which are behind this introduction. The expressed lack of academic literature supporting the case by Welsh Labour compared to the author’s argument shows a stark difference and allows for their case to come across very well. I do think however that the use of examples of the closed party list through the European Parliament Elections which took place in the UK would enhance this blog in showing real world examples and the effect of a closed party list in the accountability of elected politicians. Additionally it may have disproved the idea of increased dominance by a particular party which was never the case in these elections.
This is a very well-written blog which provides a comprehensive look at the Senedd’s move to proportional representation, and argues its validity as an electoral system effectively. Good use of engaging titles which maintain the flow of the blog from start to finish. The author shows knowledge of the subject of discussion and expresses it in an easy to digest way. Furthermore, the blog asks rhetorical questions that leave the reader with a new view on the topic, even if they were already familiar with it. The blog consolidates a lot of information into one concise post.
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