One PM too many? Brexit, Party gate, and the fall of the Conservative Government

Since the Brexit referendum in 2016 the conservative government has faced a tumultuous term, having gone through 5 prime ministers, faced numerous scandals within the party: including Partygate, the fallout of Truss and more recently the Rwanda bill scandal. So, is this all reason enough for the tory government to be ousted in the next general election? In short, yes.  Opinion polls by (Leach et al., 2024) show that support for the labour party is at 49%- with an 8% increased from December last year. So how did we get to witness the fall of the conservative party over the last 8 years? A comprehensive overview.

Van den Wouwer, J. (2019). Boris-Joker-Johnson. [Unsplash] 

After the long-awaited resignation of Theresa May, Boris Johnson was elected in by the Conservative party members, perhaps facing the toughest external challenges yet. He came into power as the country, and the party, were split with a 52% go ahead for Brexit, the deals must be made. Theresa May had caused a large division in the party, bringing on the heaviest parliamentary reversal ever on a British PM, therefore was forced to resign due to a 230 margin of defeat on her Brexit deal (Blitz, J., 2019). With the looming potential of a no deal Brexit, amongst the rise of a global pandemic, was Johnson really the best person to take on the job? Johnson had already been shunned by the media in 2018 when he was seen to compare Muslim women in burqas to letterboxes and bank robbers (BBC News., 2020).

Nevertheless, Johnson stuck by his Brexit campaign and finalised a deal on the 1st of January 2021, leading Great Britain, and Northern Ireland to exit the UK. However, new challenges came to play here, the Covid-19 pandemic left the UK as the laughingstock of the world, having failed to attend any of the COBRA meetings, the UK was poorly equipped and acted way too slow. With Matt Handcock as the health secretary the conservative government faced controversy after controversy in dealing with the pandemic. The peak of public distrust came about during Partygate. After being told they were not allowed to grieve loved ones, visit care homes or attend funerals, the public was in outcry when multiple cabinet ministers such as Dominic Cummings and Neil Ferguson were caught breaking their own rules. Despite a speech where he declared to the nation “in this fight we can be in no doubt that each and every one of us is directly enlisted. Each and every one of us is now obliged to join together” (Gorton et al., 2022), videos were leaked of Johnson’s government hosting ‘gatherings’ during the peak of the lockdown.  The public were in outcry, with the story gaining so much traction that a Channel 4 documentary was made. Henceforth came Johnson’s resignation- and following this another embarrassing couple of months for the conservative government.

After that rollercoaster of a term the next conservative PM had a lot to live up to- unfortunately a social media campaign to see who would last longer- Liz or a lettuce head-was in fact her downfall. After a mini-budget failure that left the UK in financial turmoil Liz Truss was in and out of government in 49 days. Leading way for Sunak to pick up the pieces of a devastating couple of months for the conservatives. As a tax cutting Brexiteer, his strong financial policies and backing of Brexit may have enlisted some elements of hope into the British public (Self, J., 2023). However, he came into government in a time of financial peril for the UK, with a recession looming there was many issues to be faced. The NHS waitlists and subsequent strikes from doctors saw the longest walkout ever from NHS doctors from the 13th-18th July 2023 (Mahase, E., 2023). Further to this, between May and October 2023, 7.3million low-income households went without essentials such as heating and food, due to the current cost of living crisis under Sunak’s government (Partington, R., 2023). The current situation for UK residents is the knowledge that mortgages will increase by 39% in 2024 (Partington, R., 2023).

This tumultuous couple of years can only explain the recent opinion polls. Starmer’s Labour government has been ahead in the opinion polls since 2022, with the current stats showing a 49% majority for labour, with an estimated 455 seats at the next election (Sector, P., 2024). These results can only be explained by the self-inflicted demise of the tory government.

Reference list

‌ Leach, A., Hoog, N. de, Cousins, R., Fischer, H. and Kirk, A. (2024). UK general election opinion polls tracker: Labour leading as election looms. [online] the Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/feb/19/uk-general-election-opinion-polls-tracker-latest-labour-tories-starmer-sunak.

Mahase, E., 2023. Junior doctors in England will walk out for five days in the longest strike in NHS history. BMJ: British Medical Journal (Online)381, p.p1448.

‌ Weaver, M. (2022). Iceberg lettuce in blond wig outlasts Liz Truss. [online] the Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/20/iceberg-lettuce-in-blonde-wig-outlasts-liz-truss.

Blitz, J. (2019). Theresa May in numbers: defeats, resignations and Brexit. [online] www.ft.com. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/617f3318-7e24-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560 [Accessed 4 Mar. 2024].

Boris Johnson’s Muslim comments ‘really ill-judged’, says Caroline Nokes. (2020). BBC News. [online] 27 Feb. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51666795.

Gorton, V., McVie, S. and Murray, K., 2022. Partygate raises important questions about rules, guidance and compliance during COVID. LSE COVID-19 Blog.

Partington, R. (2023). Rishi Sunak has little to celebrate as cost of living crisis enters a new phase. The Guardian. [online] 17 Dec. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/17/rishi-sunak-has-little-to-celebrate-as-cost-of-living-crisis-enters-a-new-phase [Accessed 4 Mar. 2024].

Sector, P. (2024). Latest UK Opinion Polls: Government approval recent changes. [online] Ipsos. Available at: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls [Accessed 4 Mar. 2024].

Van den Wouwer, J. (2019). Boris-Joker-Johnson. [Unsplash ] FUJIFILM, X100S. Available at: https://unsplash.com/photos/person-holding-man-wearing-clown-face-art-wod3IB2jkhA [Accessed 5 Mar. 2024].