A Union Divided? The Electoral Success of Nationalism and The Future of Devolution
Over the course of the past decade, stability has not been a word often used to describe the politics of the United Kingdom. Since confirmation from David Cameron in May of 2015 that the UK public would be able to vote on the future of the countries membership in the European Union, divisions have been rife. The withdrawal of the UK’s membership from the European Union in 2016 added a new lease of life into the Scottish independence movement and created, possibly for the first time since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, serious questions over Northern Ireland’s future in the union. These factors, in addition to the electoral successes of the Scottish National Party, Sinn Fein and Plaid Cymru, all of whom are campaigning for their countries to be independent of Westminster rule, pose a serious threat to the constitutional stability of the United Kingdom. This blog post seeks to explore the dynamics between the government at Westminster and its devolved counterparts, and what the future holds for the United Kingdom.
As Michelle O’Neill was sworn in as First Minister of Northern Ireland in the first week of February, it signalled a possible seismic shift in the constitutional makeup of the United Kingdom. With Sinn Fein as the largest party in the region, as well as the almost domination of the SNP in Scotland in the past decade, anti-unionism now has a mandate. Both Sinn Fein and the SNP will be tasked with leading the campaigns for independence as they are now both the dominant expressions of nationalism across the UK. (Finn, 2022) Although the SNP’s independence campaign of 2014 ultimately ended in failure, support for the party has remained steady. Similarly, Sinn Fein’s rise to becoming the largest party in Northern Ireland for the first time ever has brought a threat to devolution. But why are the two parties against it?
One of the key arguments from the opponents of the UK’s current devolved system of governance is the regional disparities that have become increasingly evident. For example, whilst London is ‘recognised as the richest region of Europe, six of the ten poorest regions also lie within the UK.’ Additionally, between 1971 and 2011, struggling areas remained concentrated mainly in Northern Ireland, the north of England and Wales. (UK2070 Commission, 2020)
Additionally, the instability of the Northern Ireland Assembly due to issues such as distrust between parties and the ongoing impact of Brexit continue to downplay the legitimacy of the powers devolved to Northern Ireland from Westminster. Highlighting the need for change within the dynamics of devolution is the somewhat lack of engagement between Westminster and its devolved governments. Former First Minister of Scotland, Jack McConnell, stated that a broken relationship between the institutions, and divisions over taxation and welfare provisions, would seriously harm the ‘single economic market that is the UK.’ (Walker, 2010)
Arguably the biggest threat to devolution since its establishment in 1997 was the Scottish independence referendum of 2014. (Jeffery, 2016) Whilst constitutional matters remain a prerogative of the British parliament, ‘The UK’s unwritten constitution, limited intergovernmental relations and a lack of shared rule mechanisms mean that these technical decisions have the potential to lead to ongoing political instability.’ (Sandford and Gormley-Heenan, 2020) Support for Scottish independence can be traced back to the Thatcher governments of the 1980s, where Thatcherite politics disproportionately affected the heavily industrialised Scottish economy. (Finn, 2022) Since Scotland was granted devolution in 1997, no Conservative has ever held the title of first minister.
Reasons for dissatisfaction with the current model of devolution from the SNP, and subsequent support for an independent Scotland is that whilst the Scottish Parliament has powers in areas such as health, education and justice, Westminster still reserves powers such as foreign policy, economic matters and defence. Additionally, the impact of Brexit has strengthened the case for an independent Scotland. With a majority of 62% voting for the UK to remain in the European Union, Brexit has once again opened the door for conversation on Scotland’s future in the union, with former SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon stating in 2021 that Brexit has undermined the Scottish parliament.
Brexit has also undermined many of the powers that have been devolved to the governments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. For instance, future agricultural policy will be ‘ dictated by Westminster given that the EU Withdrawal Bill has agreed that the retained EU competencies in the area of agriculture should be returned to Westminster and not to the devolved institutions post Brexit.’ (Sandford and Gormley-Heenan, 2020) This is despite the fact that agriculture plays a much larger role in the economies of the devolved nations, rather than England, and that agriculture is a devolved matter.
To conclude, the recent electoral success of parties such as Sinn Fein and the SNP, in addition to the tensions that Brexit has brought to fruition for the government at Westminster, all bring into question if the current model of devolution in the UK is one of success or democratic deficit. With the ongoing rise of nationalist politics across the UK, call for the end of the union , and not just reform of devolved powers, is gaining serious momentum.
Bibliography
Finn, D. (2022) Challenge from the Peripheries, New Left Review (135)
Jeffery, C. (2016). The United Kingdom after the Scottish Referendum. In: Richard Heffernan, Colin Hay, Meg Russell, Philip Cowley. (Ed). Developments in British Politics. 10th ed. London: Palgrave. p.244.
Sandford, M. and Gormley-Heenan, C. (2020) ‘Taking Back Control’, the UK’s Constitutional Narrative and Schrodinger’s Devolution. Parliamentary Affairs, 73(1). pp. 108-119.
UK2070 Commission (2020). Make No Little Plans ACTING AT SCALE FOR A FAIRER AND STRONGER FUTURE. [online] Available at: Make No Little Plans ACTING AT SCALE FOR A FAIRER AND STRONGER FUTURE [Accessed 13 Feb. 2024].
Walker, G. (2010). Scotland, Northern Ireland and Devolution: Past and Present. Contemporary British History, 24(2), pp.235–256.
Images
McQuillan, C. (2024). Available at: https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/first-minister-of-northern-ireland-michelle-oneill-and-news-photo/1979157631?adppopup=true [Accessed 13 Feb. 2024].
Barlow, J. (2022)
Overall, this blog is well-written and provides a comprehensive overview of the challenges facing devolution in the UK and the threat nationalism has on the union. The blog is well-structured with clear sections addressing different aspects of the topic such as Brexit, regional disparities, and the electoral success of nationalist parties. The inclusion of relevant references aids the credibility of the analysis provided. This blog however could have benefited from looking at potential solutions or reforms to addressing these issues.
This blog offers a thought provoking assessment of devolution within the UK. It draws on two main issues with devolution, Scottish independence and nationalism within Northern Ireland. The author rightfully explains how Brexit has changed dynamics within the UK around devolution. Detail is paid to the Scottish Referendum showing how it was the first major move against devolution within the UK to date. It was also rightfully noted that the campaign failed, the desire of the majority was for devolution to continue.
Moreover, the detail around EU policy and devolved powers from Westminster was very insightful in understanding arguments made by those who feel devolution isn’t enough and more powers devolved is necessary.
It would have been useful to acknowledge the unique nature of Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein are joint heads of government along with the DUP, current polling does not suggest that Northern Ireland is close to leaving the UK. It would have been useful to add greater context to the basis of power sharing, unlike the Scottish referendum their is not a majority consensus to see devolution end.
This blog post demonstrates an extensive knowledge of the relevant topic of devolution across the devolved institutions. The importance of Brexit as to the current situations in both Northern Ireland and Scotland is adequately expanded upon, especially in regards to the newly founded tensions within the Northern Irish assembly. This point of Brexit and its effect on Northern Ireland could have been expanded upon through the use of research into the NI Protocol and Windsor framework and the relevant polarisation both of these ‘agreements’ stoke in Northern Ireland with only 55% of those polled agreeing that the agreements were ‘a good thing for Northern Ireland’ (Phinnemore & Hayward , 2024). Examination of polling figures regarding public opinion on a United Ireland would have expanded this argument and presented and interesting counter-argument to the point of a faltering Union. The inclusion of reference to the disparities between areas of the UK is interesting and unique, it would have been interesting to briefing touch on expansion of devolved powers to regions within the UK other than NI, Scotland and Wales such as the expansion of local powers in the West midlands. Otherwise, this blog post presents an intriguing and well researched analysis of the continued success of nationalist parties and the effect of devolution on the Union.
This blog post is well-written and offers an interesting take on the future of devolution in the UK. The author is right to point out that Brexit and its aftermath, particularly the manner by which the UK Government conducted the process, damaged trust between central government and the devolved governments. More importantly, the fact that Brexit happened at all has strengthened the case of nationalists (especially in Scotland) that the only way to address democratic deficits in the UK is full independence, not more devolution.
However, in discussing Northern Ireland, there are a few issues. Northern Ireland’s version of devolution is completely unique, and an acknowledgement of this would have been helpful. For example, the particular difficulties of government in Northern Ireland, namely regular instability, means that there needs to be reform of the institutions – Irish unification is not the only answer here. As other contributors have mentioned, there is no majority in the polls for a united Ireland, so devolution is here to stay for the foreseeable future in Northern Ireland.