Reform UK: a Harbinger of Change in the UK’s Political Tapestry?
There has been a considerable recent increase in polling performance for Reform UK, leaving the party only six percentage points behind the Conservatives (Heffer, 2024). This is an indicator of shifting political values in British politics, a consequence of which is that working class voters who have defected from the Conservatives are 50% more likely to vote for Reform UK than for Labour (Walker, 2024). The impressive polling performance of Reform UK reflects a shift towards more conservative values in some of the UK electorate, but the situation remains more complex than one might first assume. This post will analyse the changes in political values that have led to the rise of Reform UK at the expense of the Conservatives, namely changes in attitudes towards immigration and transgender rights. First, we will begin by describing Reform UK’s political platform, before delving into analysis of how political values have changed and how Reform UK’s ascent in the polls could be a manifestation of this evolving political landscape.
The Reform UK platform, as laid out in their “Reform is Essential” publication, places great importance on contentious current issues. One such issue is immigration. Reform UK aim to achieve net zero immigration, allowing only those with in demand skills such as doctors to be let into the country, which they claim will benefit young working class people. Another point laid out in this publication is combatting what the party describes as “wokeness” in schools, such as the teaching of Critical Race Theory (Reform UK, 2023, pp. 15-20). These policies reflect a rallying cry which aims to win over the right with populist themes against what they see as the threat of immigration and the encroachment of “wokeness” on education (The Week UK, 2021).
One change in political values that Reform UK’s rise in polling reflects is shifting attitudes towards immigration. Ipsos, in collaboration with British Future, found that since July 2022, the amount of people in the UK that believe immigration has a negative impact on the country has steadily increased, despite the fact that more people still believe that immigration has a more positive effect (2024, p. 4).
What this shows is that Britain remains divided on the issue of immigration. However, negative attitudes to immigration have been on the rise, and this could mean that parties who take tougher lines on immigration, such as Reform UK, could become more popular as voters seek for a party that serves their political interests. However, It is important to note that despite the rise in negative attitudes to immigration, a plurality of those surveyed have a positive view of immigration, indicating that while the rise of parties like Reform UK show a section of the population’s discontent with current policy, it doesn’t necessarily indicate a huge change in wider demand for tougher legislation.
Another key issue is attitudes to issues that Reform UK dub as ‘woke’, such as education about transgender people and critical race theory. YouGov have found that support for transgender rights in the UK have gradually eroded since 2018 (Smith, 2022). This indicates that the attitudes of British citizens towards transgender people are becoming more conservative, and the rise of Reform UK could partially be a manifestation of conservative discontent with current policy, with their robust rejection of anything other than the traditional views on gender and sex.
Despite this, the public have developed more progressive views in other areas. The British public, over the last 40 years, has become more accepting towards “non-traditional” sexual relationships, families and abortion rights, although views on transgender rights have remained somewhat conservative (National Centre For Social Research, 2023). This serves as a reminder that the views of the public in general are not black and white, and the public may advocate for progressive policies in some areas and conservative ones in others.
Overall, it is clear that Britain is undergoing a degree of change in its political values, with attitudes in some areas becoming more conservative. The gains of Reform UK in the polls could be an early sign of the political consequences of this evolution, but it remains to be seen how they perform in the upcoming General Election, especially considering the fact that there remains a bastion of social progressivism in the form of the Labour Party and its supporters, who are touted by many to form the next government (Hutton, 2023).
Bibliography
Heffer, G. (2024). Reform UK just six points behind the slumping Tories in a new poll. [online] Mail Online. Available at: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13284139/Reform-UK-rise-highest-vote-share-15-cent-leave-Nigel-Farage-backed-party-just-six-points-slumping-Tories-new-poll.html [Accessed 11 Apr. 2024].
Hutton, W. (2023). Ignore the detractors – Keir Starmer is a radical who can transform the country. The Observer. [online] 26 Mar. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/26/ignore-detractors-keir-starmer-radical-transform-country.
Ipsos and British Future (2024). Attitudes Towards Immigration Survey. [online] Available at: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-03/immigration-tracker-2024-charts.pdf [Accessed 14 Apr. 2024].
National Centre For Social Research (2023). Britain’s Attitudes Towards Moral Issues Have Become Much More Liberal. [online] National Centre for Social Research. Available at: https://natcen.ac.uk/news/britains-attitudes-towards-moral-issues-have-become-much-more-liberal [Accessed 14 Apr. 2024].
Reform UK (2023). Reform is Essential. [online] Available at: https://assets.nationbuilder.com/reformuk/pages/303/attachments/original/1696527070/Reform_is_Essential_-_5Oct23.pdf?1696527070 [Accessed 11 Apr. 2024].
Smith, M. (2022). Where does the British public stand on transgender rights in 2022? | YouGov. [online] yougov.co.uk. Available at: https://yougov.co.uk/society/articles/43194-where-does-british-public-stand-transgender-rights-1.
The Week UK (2021). Reform UK: What Does the Party Stand for? [online] The Week. Available at: https://theweek.com/news/uk-news/954310/what-does-reform-uk-stand-for [Accessed 13 Apr. 2024].
Walker, A. (2024). The state of public opinion: class. [online] UK in a changing Europe. Available at: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-state-of-public-opinion-class/.
This is a very informative blog post which deals effectively with the new phenomenon in British politics which is the rise of Reform UK. The author goes into great detail in analysing two of the most prominent policies of reform, reducing immigration to a minimum and ending ‘woke’ culture across the country. The blog does a good job and highlighting these issues and explaining the relationship between them and Reform.
On the other hand, the blog post gives a balanced account of Reform UK. Early polling can foresee great gains made by the party. The blog post effectively points out that analysing their success can only bear fruit after the results of the general election, currently polling, as the blog recognises, is merely speculation.
The blog post could be more concisely written, the use of sub headings would have aided the flow of the discussion. Despite this, it is a very interesting and informing read.
This blog post offers a compelling analysis of the recent surge in popularity for Reform UK, attributing it to shifting attitudes towards immigration and transgender rights. While the post effectively outlines the party’s platform and the factors contributing to its rise in popularity, there are several additional factors worth considering. One aspect that could use further exploration is the socioeconomic context underlying these shifts in political values. Beyond immigration and social issues, economic factors such as job insecurity and income inequality likely play a significant role in shaping voter preferences. Understanding how these economic concerns intersect with political attitudes could provide valuable insights into the appeal of Reform UK to certain segments of the population. Additionally, the role of media framing and political discourse cannot be overlooked in shaping public perceptions of key issues. How do media narratives and political rhetoric influence public attitudes towards immigration and transgender rights? Exploring these dynamics can shed light on the broader socio-political context in which Reform UK’s ascent is occuring.