The Impact of Brexit on Voting Behaviours in the UK
Introduction
Brexit has played a significant role in the reshaping of normal patterns of voting behaviour in the UK in the years since the 2016 referendum. (Webb and Bale 2021) In the aftermath of the referendum, the UK electorate seems to have moved beyond traditional divisions which influenced voting behaviour in British politics. For years, voting behaviour appeared to display that Labour could count on working class support whilst the Conservatives could rely on middle class support. However, voting behaviour in recent years displays that these rules no longer seem to apply. (Surridge 2021)
Realignment trends in voting behaviour:
Realignment describes major shifts in the traditional basis of party support based on structural cleavages. Realignment is a process of transition in electoral systems where new cleavages are formed, cross-cutting traditional cleavages and influencing patterns of electoral support. (Webb and Bale 2021)
Historically in Britain, the main cleavage to define voting behaviour was class divisions with the lower class traditionally voting Labour, and the middle class traditionally voting Conservative. (Surridge 2021). However, in the general elections held post-Brexit referendum, it appears that the opposite trend has emerged. Graduates, who are more likely to be in middle class jobs were more likely to vote Remain and as a result were more likely to vote Labour. In contrast, Labour’s traditional working class voter base were more likely to support Leave, and so moved towards the Conservatives. (Curtice 2023)
After the 2016 referendum, the Conservatives new stance on pursuing a “Hard Brexit”, appeared to make them the party most likely to get Brexit done, resulting in their support from Leave voters increasing from 44-75% between 2015 and 2019. (Fieldhouse et al 2023). The issue of Brexit was prominent in the realignment of working-class voters, 62% of whom voted Leave, driving them to defect to the Conservatives in the 2017 and 2019 General Elections (Webb and Bale 2021).
(Fieldhouse et al 2023)
The loss of traditional Labour voters to the Conservatives is symbolised in the changing geographic basis of support in the 2019 general election with the collapse of Labour’s “red wall” in the North of England, where constituencies held by Labour for decades were lost to the Conservatives, strongly indicating a Brexit realignment in UK voting behaviours. (Fieldhouse et al 2023).
(BBC News 2019)
Brexit has also created new levels of polarization among British voters, resulting in the production of a new values divide. (Hobolt et al 2020). In the aftermath of the realignment caused by Brexit, competing social political identities have come to fill the gap created by the decline in traditional party identification. As many voters are likely to identify as members of the ‘Leave’ or ‘Remain’ groups as they are with any particular political party. (Webb and Bale 2021). In 2017 and 2019, both Remain and Leave identities were stronger on average than traditional party identification measured on the same scale. (Fieldhouse et al. 2020).
Issues associated with Brexit and EU membership connects voters’ opinions with a wider set of values and attitudes towards immigration, identity, social liberty and authority, explaining why Brexit preferences have a high potential to create a lasting realignment in voting behaviour in the UK. (Webb and Bale 2021)
Conclusion:
Whether Brexit caused a lasting realignment in voting behaviour in the UK, will become clearer after the next UK general election, which is due to be held before 28th January 2025, with PM Rishi Sunak announcing intentions that it will be held in the latter half of this year. (Edgington 2024)
It is highly unlikely that the issue of Brexit will dominate in the upcoming election campaigns in the same way as it did in the past two general elections, yet evidence shows that how people voted in the 2016 referendum still helps to predict their voting behaviour today. (Curtice 2023)
The below table displays the current voting intentions of Remainers vs Leavers.
(The Telegraph 2024)
Whilst the link between Brexit preference and voting behaviour may be weaker now than in the last general election four years ago, it has not disappeared from Britain’s electoral landscape. (Curtice 2023) Whether Brexit played a long-lasting role in changing voting behaviours in the UK remains to be seen, but we can be certain that class is no longer the main cleavage to influence voting behavior in the UK.
References
Conservative gains in working class areas hexagon graph (2019) BBC News. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50770798 (Accessed: 01 April 2024).
Curtice, J., 2023. A Return to ‘Normality’? The Next UK General Election. Political Insight, 14(4), pp.7-9.
Edgington, T. (2024) ‘General Election: When is the next one and could it be called sooner?’, BBC News, 16 January. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62064552.
Fieldhouse, E., Evans, G., Green, J., Mellon, J., Prosser, C. and Bailey, J., 2023. Volatility, Realignment, and Electoral Shocks: Brexit and the UK General Election of 2019. PS: Political Science & Politics, 56(4), pp.537-545.
Fieldhouse, E., Green, J., Evans, G., Mellon, J., Prosser, C., Schmitt, H. and Van der Eijk, C., 2020. Electoral shocks: The volatile voter in a turbulent world. Oxford University Press.
General Election Poll Tracker image (2024) The Telegraph. Available at: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/uk-general-election-poll-tracker-conservative-labour/#rwbw_element.
Hobolt, S.B., Leeper, T.J. and Tilley, J., 2021. Divided by the vote: Affective polarization in the wake of the Brexit referendum. British Journal of Political Science, 51(4), pp.1476-1493.
Surridge, P. (2021) Brexit, British Politics and Values, UK in a changing Europe. Available at: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-british-politics-and-values/ (Accessed: 01 April 2024).
Webb, P. and Bale, T. (2021) ‘Understanding electoral change: Realignment or dealignment? ’, in The Modern British Party System. 2nd edn. Oxford University Press.
This post addresses an interesting phenomenon in British politics, as Brexit has had an enormous effect on the changing voter identity in the UK. The author mentions how education has a cross cutting effect on the traditional class divide within British party politics, and while this is true, it would have been useful for the author to go into why it has this effect. Those with a university education tend to have higher paying jobs that are a part of the global economy rather than their local economy. This gives them a sense of belonging in the international community and allows them to reap the benefits of EU membership as it allows for the free movement of people, goods, labour, and capital. However, those with ‘blue collar’ jobs might feel left behind or threatened by globalisation and its impact on the economy and migration. The reasoning behind education as a voting factor helps to explain why British voters have changed their party allegiances, even if they are not permanent.
This blog provides a broad analysis of how Brexit has affected the UK electorate. It walks through the history of Brexit’s effect on voting to the present day, showing its heightened impact in 2019 through to a milder effect today. I found the use of tables a welcome change to merely listing statistics. However, more could have been written on why Brexit has affected voting, rather than simply stating that it has. The reasons behind the polarisation of society after Brexit is an important part of political science, and an author shouldn’t assume that the readers are aware of it. That being said, this is a well-crafted blog post.
This blog post offers a thorough analysis of the realignment trends in voting behaviour in the UK, particularly in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum. The blogpost author effectively highlights how Brexit has reshaped traditional patterns of voting behaviour, with significant implications for political parties and electoral dynamics. One aspect that could be further explored is the role of demographic shifts in driving voting behaviour post-Brexit. While the focus is primarily on the divide between Leave and Remain voters, it would be interesting to explore how demographic factors such as age, education, and ethnicity intersect with Brexit preferences and party support. For instance, how do younger voters, who are more likely to support Remain, navigate their political identities in the context of Brexit and broader socio-economic challenges? Moreover, the role of political leadership and campaign strategies in shaping voter preferences post-Brexit could be further explored. How do political parties and leaders strategically position themselves on the issue of Brexit to appeal to different segments of the electorate? How effective are these strategies in mobilising support and reshaping electoral alliances? Examining the role of campaign messaging could provide valuable insights into the dynamics of post-Brexit voting behaviour.