People are predictable- an analysis of why we vote the way we do.
To the untrained eye, voting behaviours throughout British politics may seem random, when the reality is anything but. This practice is shaped by complex relationships between a voter’s personal outlook and the socio-economic climate of the time. (Butler, 1995) These factors can be divided into long and short term distinctions of vote choice where a mixture of both defines every election that Britain experiences. Long term factors such as social class unconsciously underpin the very nature of British politics and influence vote choice on a fundamental level. Peter Pulzer addressed this, stating that ”class is the basis of British party politics: all else is embellishment and detail.” (Abramson, 1972) However, increasing erosion throughout the links between voters and parties in advanced democracies has indicated that lengthened structures are giving way to shorter ones as people care more about immediate improvements in society, rather than waiting for an extended solution. (Dassonneville, 2016) Two short-term factors that are becoming increasingly important in vote choice in British politics are analysed below.
ECONOMIC COMPETENCE
Whichever party lands in government will have a direct influence over the economy of the country. Therefore, when voters are making their choice it is important for them to evaluate which party manifesto will benefit them both on an egocentric and sociotropic level. Here, longer term factors like social class play a role in decision making as people from different socio-economic backgrounds profit from differing economic policies. Voters tend to consistently monitor the state of the economy as it is a political issue that directly affects them, which means that the governing party will be held accountable for any failures during an election. Previous studies such as ‘Macroeconomies, Economic Crisis and Electoral Outcomes’ by Ruth Dassonneville (2014) and ‘Good News and Bad News: Asymmetric Responses to Economic Information’ by Stuart Soroka (2006) provide an in-depth analysis of this, concluding that negative economic performances hold more weight for voters than positive. (Berz, 2020) The COVID-19 pandemic is a perfect case study. General polling felt that the government was handling the economy relatively well at the start of lockdown, but increased inflation caused the government’s economic reputation to suffer. By April 2022, over 2 in 3 voters said the government was handling the economy poorly and even amongst Conservative voters, critics outweighed supporters. (Curtice, 2024) The figure below visualises this.
figure 1. UK in Changing Europe.
It is evident that the state of the economy directly correlates to vote choice, which is heavily reflected in elections and after rough economic periods. Voters want to feel economically stable within their own lives and communities and will continue to vote in ways that they feel will best achieve this. In the wake of the Truss government, the Conservative economic reputation is at an all time low with little time left to make amends before the next election cycle, leaving it up to voters to decide whether or not the current climate is enough to satisfy the British public.
IDEOLOGIES
One of the most prominent questions in politics is whether or not the electorate actually knows what it is voting for. Anthony Downs’ Spatial Voting Model provides a competent explanation of this notion. He stresses that voters actually have limited information of politics, simply because they are primarily concerned with their day-to-day lives. Party beliefs act as information-economising devices that enable rational voters to recognise their preferences and choose their political party based on whichever one comes ideologically closest. (Downs, 1957) Whilst people may be politically uninformed, they still have clear ideas of right and wrong and desirable and non-desirable outcomes. Therefore, political parties use this to appeal to voter preferences. A culmination of these factors creates staunch ideologies that form the basis of the different areas of the political sphere. For example, the Thatcher government gave way to the rise of Thatcherism, which involved dismantling the post-war consensus and privatising previously nationalised industry. (Green, 1999) This is a perfect example of how people’s preferences can be mobilised by political parties to create legitimate ideologies and made to look desirable, even if they actually aren’t. Supporters of Thatcherism may not have fully understood the implications of the policies, but the general ideology catered to their personal preferences. This is a clear insight into why people are attracted to certain parties.
figure 2: Margaret Thatcher. Britannica.
In conclusion, certain characteristics will always influence how people vote. However, relationships within these notions can be complex and interchangeable which leads to multitudes of voting behaviour for a number of reasons. It is evident that Britain is moving away from traditional class-based voting. We can begin to navigate this shift by analysing consistent short-term factors like the economy and ideologies to map possible voting trends, similarities and differences as British politics enters this new era.
Bibliography:
- Abramson, P (1972) ‘Intergenerational Social Mobility and Partisan Choice.’ The American Political Science Review, 66(4). Pg 1291-1294
- Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Margaret-Thatcher
- Butler, D (1995) ‘Voting Behaviour and its Study in Britain.’ The British Journal of Sociology, 6(2). Pg 93-103
- Curtice, J (2024) ‘The State of Public Opinion: The Economy.’ UK In a Changing Europe. National Centre for Social Research. University of Strathclyde. Available at: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-state-of-public-opinion-the-economy/ accessed on: 12/3/24
- Dassonneville, R (2016) ‘Volatile Voters, Short-Term Choices? An Analysis of the Vote Choice Determinants of Stable and Volatile Voters in Great Britain.’ Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 26(3). Pg 273-292
- Downs, A (1957) ‘An Economic Theory of Democracy.’ Pearson Publisher. London, England
- Green, E.H (1999) ‘Thatcherism: An Historical Perspective.’ Transactions of the Royal Historical Society, 9. Pg 17-42
- YouGov UK (2019-2023) ‘Perception of Government’s Economic Comprtence.’ Available at: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/economy/trackers/how-the-government-is-handling-the-economy-in-the-uk accessed on: 12/3/24
This blog post highlights some of the factors which affect the why people may vote the way that they do. The use of why people may have voted for Margaret Thatcher was very interesting to me as they highlight how many simply do not know that much about politics. It made me think how this could be related to the UK today and whether the next general election could be a reflection on anything said in the blog post. By using a graph when talking about how economic affects the way we may vote was very good as it clearly showed how people opinions have drastically changed over time. To further add to the topic it could be looked into how a party leader plays a role in what party people vote for. Characteristics of a leader can play a large role in whether the party gets support from voters, past leaders like Winston Churchill and Tony Blair are good examples of this. It could also be interesting to look at how short term events can effect a leaders campaign. Political scandals around the time of election can be devastating for not just a person’s reputation but also the party they are a part of.
The author addresses many interesting points surrounding voting patterns in British politics, specifically the relationships between voters and the impact of the socio-economic climate in relation to the current leading government. Social class based voting has long been a pattern in British politics that has been effectively used by politicians in power. Traditionally it has shaped alignment in British Politics, and has been utilised to mobilise class support for political parties, through policies that are shaped by class interest. This typically manifests itself in economic policy support, due to the consistent monitoring of economic variation in the media. The expansion of media has had a vast impact on voting patterns due to a rise of accessible information. An example of this is the vast coverage on the impact of Covid 19 on the economy, and the subsequent rapid inflation that followed a series of lockdowns. This blog highlights this practice of class voting, specifically in the model of Thatcherism, demonstrating how personal preferences can be utilised by politicians for party gain, without actually aiding voters. The author has highlighted how a government shapes the economy for as long as they are in power, and how this impact can last longer than their term in power e.g., Liz Truss. As the author has highlighted the impact of government on the economy, it could be valuable to assess how the state of the economy shapes the government. Such as in the case of Boris Johnson, who whilst trying to ‘push through’ Brexit, also dealt with a global pandemic and rapid inflation throughout his term in government. While government shapes the economy, the economy can shape the effectiveness of government in other policy areas, and therefore its effectiveness in the eyes of voters- impacting voting patterns
As an international student, I found this post to be a very insightful view into the political behavior of individuals in the UK. I never realized how much class is still a central part of politics, even on such an individual level as voter behavior. The author mentioned the importance of short term voting patterns such as the economy and ideology. It will be interesting to see the various ways that the influence of ideology may shift in the future as Far Right ideology deepens in many nations around the globe. For example, in the United States’ 2016 election, the impact of widespread Far Right ideology was first emerging and resulted in serious polarization within the population. As various expressions of Far Right ideology gain traction throughout much of Europe, the impact of ideology on voter behavior may be increasingly important in future elections.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-58713102
This blog post instantly captivates the audience due to the headline, already making it heavily engaging. The emphasis on social class in the blog post is of importance in British politics in terms of voting is very interesting. This is complemented well with the structure, split up with subheadings as well as illustrated with images and graphs to emphasise the points being made. I agree with the conclusion that voting behaviour is complex and varying issues can contribute to why people vote the way they do in the UK. it would be interesting, to look at the future of voting behaviour in depth and why class is less important compared to newer factors. Overall, a very interesting blog post.
The author presents an interesting and multifaceted approach as to why the people of the United Kingdom vote the way we do. Through the analysis of the relationship of how the public views the handling of the economy the author presents an extremely intriguing argument, the use of data from YouGov regarding change in ‘perceptions of Government’s Economic Competence’ compared to governmental approval in general serves to support an excellent observation of economic importance. This point could have been expanded upon further through the use of contemporary polling as to how the public view the two parties’ ability to handle the economy and how this relates to current polling statistics. Further investigation would have found that more voters believe the Labour Party would be ‘’best at handling the economy?’’, this directly correlates to the current success of Labour in contemporary polling, further enhancing the authors argument that the economy has a great affect on the electorate those choose to vote. All-together, this blog post illustrates that the author holds an extensive knowledge of the effects of the economy and other factors on how individuals vote, as well as, the changing nature of voting behaviours within the United Kingdom.
The author begins delving into the complexities surrounding voting behaviour in UK politics, highlighting both long-term and short-term factors. Although, the writer would have benefited from addressing the long-term factors like social class in greater detail and linking them to the short-term factors like economic competence, as they do correlate. However, the structured approach with the two clear headings, splitting the two main topics into sections allows for the blog post to be easily read and understood allowing for the argument to be clear. The critical approach towards the issue of voting behaviour is super. Witnessed by evaluating the two main factors of economy and ideology and recognising the complexity and interchangeability the two factors have on voting behaviour. Using various academic perspectives to enhance the argument, from relevant scholars like Butler and Dassonneville. The critical approach is further enhanced by discussing the two main examples of Thatcherism which gave rise to new ideologies and the impact of covid-19 on the conservative governments rating, which was also supplemented by a graph. Allowing, for the reader to further enhance their knowledge by making it easier to understand, if they were unaware beforehand. The conclusion is short and simple, however, quickly emphasising the main points of the authors argument surrounding short-term factors have led to voting behaviour being predictable.
This blog post examines the voting patterns of an individual and why they vote in a certain way. The introduction sets the tone of the post explaining the different factors which affect voting patterns, categorising them into short term and long term. The use of evidence strengthens the arguments made. Furthermore, the article highlights how people may vote off of what they associate the parties’ ideologies to in relation to their own. In addition to this, the implications of people voting when they are ill-informed can be seen with the example of the Thatcher government. It would be interesting to see the impact of the leader’s personality in a party and how much that influences people’s voting also. In summary, this article is well-written, clearly organised and informative.