How Could a more Racially Diverse Parliament have impacted Brexit?
Due to the narrow margins with which the Brexit vote was decided, many were shocked by the referendum’s outcome. Demographic commonalities between voter blocs illustrate the importance of identifiers such as age, education level, and race. It has long been recognized that people of ethnic minorities do not enjoy the same level of representation in parliament as white citizens. (Uberoi and Carthew, 2023) Although as of now many have accepted the reality of Brexit, it is possible to question whether the outcome would be different had parliament been more representative of citizens’ racial identities at the time.
Estimates show that the United Kingdom’s population is comprised of many ethnic subgroups. In 2011, England and Wales’s population was 81.7% white, followed by 9.3% Asian, 4% black, and 5% mixed/other. (Gov.uk, 2022) In Scotland, the population is 96% white with Asian, African, Caribbean or Black, and others totaling 4%. (Scotland’s Census, 2023) Lastly, Northern Ireland’s population is 98.2% white, with other ethnicities totaling under 1% each. (Census Office of the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, 2012) By these estimates, representation across all parties should reflect these measurements to achieve descriptive representation.
However, during Brexit, parliamentary representation for ethnically diverse groups did not meet these measurements. (Uberoi and Carthew, 2023) The graph below illustrates the number of ethnically diverse MPs in each party after the 2017 election. This persistent lack of descriptive representation raises questions as to whether the priorities of ethnically diverse voters were adequately represented during Brexit talks.
According to one 2014 study, information from the 2010 general election showed that white British voters are less likely to vote for non-white or Muslim candidates. The study also found that this trend was especially true among voters who held anti-immigration viewpoints, a priority for those in favor of Brexit. In contrast, members of ethnic minorities are more likely to vote for the Labour Party than whites, largely due to the large body of legislation supporting minority issues that has been passed by Labour governments. (Fisher et al., 2014) While this broad assessment of voting patterns is certainly not universally applicable, it raises questions as to what could cause voter behavior of this nature to deviate from these patterns in the future.
Recent statistics have shown a steady increase in the number of MPs from minority groups that have been elected, with some of the highest numbers seen after the 2016 referendum. (Uberoi and Carthew, 2023) The table below shows a gradual rise in candidate diversity with the steepest increase in 2015. Beyond this point, the following elections continue to increase numbers at a high rate, doubling the numbers seen in a span of nine years.
When compared to previous theories of voter behavior, this data raises questions regarding what may have sparked voters to now bolster representative equality by increasingly electing candidates of color. While there are many possible reasons for this trend, the slim margins for the success of Brexit and demographic disparities between voter blocs may be one reason for the increased public demand for equitable descriptive representation.
With all of this in mind, it is possible that greater representation of ethnic minorities could have had an impact on the Brexit decision when considering the slim margins with which the vote was decided. Voters from ethnic minorities may not always feel that their voices are adequately heard in parliament. It is possible that this, coupled with the potential that some white voters may feel unheard due to the outcome of the Brexit referendum, may be causing a change in voter behavior which drives the increased election of ethnically and racially diverse candidates. While it is difficult to assume what the outcome of the Brexit referendum would have been had racial diversity been better represented, it is possible that the opposite outcome may have been reached.
While Brexit is a decided matter of the past, the potential impact ethnic minorities can have on political matters is a valuable insight for future political issues. Regardless of how representation of ethnically diverse voters may have changed the Brexit outcome, it is clear that these voices can have an impact on key policies. Additional demographics are also underrepresented in parliament, including the LGBTQ+ community, women, and more; showing that equitable descriptive representation across all groups could have broad effects on political decisions. The future likely holds more political decisions that can be decided by very close margins and this information shows that the equitable political representation of every voice can be truly impactful.
References:
Barton, C., Audickas, L., Cracknell, R. and Tunnicliffe, R. (2022). Social Background of Members of Parliament 1979-2019. (online) commonslibrary.parliament.uk. Available at: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7483/ (Accessed 10 Mar. 2024)
BBC News (2019). Election 2019: Six Charts on Britain’s Most Diverse Parliament. BBC News. (online) 17 Dec. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50808536 (Accessed 10 Mar. 2024)
Census Office of the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (2012). DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE AND PERSONNEL Census 2011 Key Statistics for Northern Ireland. (online) p.15. Available at: https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/2011-census-results-key-statistics-northern-ireland-report-11-december-2012.pdf (Accessed 10 Mar. 2024)
Fisher, S.D., Heath, A.F., Sanders, D. and Sobolewska, M. (2014). Candidate Ethnicity and Vote Choice in Britain. British Journal of Political Science, (online) 45(4), pp.883–905. doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123413000562.
GOV.UK (2022). Population of England and Wales. (online) www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk. Available at: https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/uk-population-by-ethnicity/national-and-regional-populations/population-of-england-and-wales/latest/ (Accessed 10 Mar. 2024)
Scotland’s Census (2023). Scotland’s Census at a glance: Ethnic Groups. (online) Scotland’s Census. Available at: https://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/census-results/at-a-glance/ethnicity/#:~:text=The%202011%20census%20found%20that%3A%201%20Scotland%27s%20population (Accessed 10 Mar. 2024)
Sobolewska, M. and Shankley, W. (2020). Politics and Representation. In: Ethnicity, Race, and Inequality in the UK. (online) Bristol, UK: Policy Press, pp.189–202. Available at: https://bristoluniversitypressdigital.com/monochap-oa/book/9781447351269/ch009.xml (Accessed 10 Mar. 2024)
Uberoi, E. and Carthew, H. (2023). Ethnic Diversity in Politics and Public Life. (online) commonslibrary.parliament.uk. Available at: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01156/ (Accessed 10 Mar. 2024)
Virdee, S. and McGeever, B. (2017). Racism, Crisis, Brexit. Ethnic and Racial Studies, 41(10), pp.1802–1819. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/01419870.2017.1361544.
Brexit has been one of the most contentious issues in contemporary British politics, and thus I found this to be an interesting blog post by the author. I found it to be beneficial by the author to include the graph from the BBC regarding the increasing number of MPs who come from an ethnic minority background. Furthermore, the author has introduced an enlightening study that found white voters were less likely to vote for candidates who came from an ethnic minority background, especially voters who hold conservative views on immigration. Additionally, this study also found that British voters from an ethnic minority background were more likely to support the Labour party. The author has also raised an important question about how this behaviour could transform in the future. I believe it would have been beneficial for the author to research into this for their blog post, providing the reader with insight into the possible implications of this transformation. Furthermore, the author has introduced an interesting viewpoint that because of Brexit, voters wish for an increase in ethnic representation within Parliament. Thus, the author has introduced the thought-provoking argument that if representation in Parliament had been adequate prior to the Brexit vote, the consequences and leave result could have been avoided.
The topic of racial diversity has been spoken about using a recent event in the UK, Brexit. This blog posts highlighted an issue I had not thought about much before and shows how in the future the problem could come up again. The use of graphs helped to show how in recent years the number of those from ethnic minorities are getting more seats in parliament. In addition to the graphs the use of different studies to show how people would vote was very interesting to read as it highlights why people may vote in a certain way or they certain types of people that vote for a party. The author has develops every point well and makes sure to also analysis each point. The topic of the blog post therefore brings up many questions on how past and future elections and referendums
could play out depending on the number of ethnic minorities in parliament. However, this would also depend on the make up of the UK, as the blog post shows how the majority of the UK is white and that some white voters are less likely to vote for non-white candidates.
Reading this blog post was highly enjoyable as it made an innovative link between ethnic representation and the Brexit vote outcome. The incorporation of the data and graphs added great conviction to the writer’s point, demonstrating a clear disconnect between Britain’s electorate and the Members of Parliament. Using figures also allowed the writer to demonstrate strong comprehensive skills by linking the trends to changes in overall voting behaviour. The acknowledgement of other minorities was also interesting as the growing plurality across British society has been hugely influential for political decisions already. Overall, this was a fascinating read that discussed the different layers of voters and how ethnic representation played its role in the outcome of the Brexit vote. This blog post highlighted many patterns to do with the voting patterns of those from different ethnic backgrounds, and the point about white British voters being less likely to vote for non-white or Muslim candidates was particularly interesting.
The author begins the blog post by making an engaging statement surrounding, ‘the narrow margins which the Brexit vote was decided – led to shock on the referendums outcome.’ Which becomes the main viewpoint analysed throughout the blog. Demonstrating the author’s ability to be concise with structure and analysis. The author presents demographic and electoral data, making it easy for readers to comprehend the ethnic composition of the UK population being less representative of minority groups, except the labour party which sees most of the minority vote. The author also uses data consistently from before, during and after the Brexit referendum to help the reader understand the commonalities between voting identifiers and parliament composition. The data presented by the author is also complimented by visual indicators to help make the data easily comprehended. The author also addresses the nuanced topic surrounding the anti-immigration viewpoint that emerged from during the ‘leave’ campaign. Which matched the ‘study, that during the 2010 election white British voters would be less likely to vote for non-white candidates.’ Analysing the beginning statement further by the author using race as an indicator, helping to critique voting behaviour patterns as the author encourages readers to consider multiple perspectives regarding the factors of race. The author concludes the blog post by stating that ‘Brexit was a matter of the past’. However, the implications of race did not end there and can impact other key policies. Overall, the author provides an in-depth analysis of the impact of race on parliament outcomes. However, the author would have also benefitted from discussing how the factors of race and other indicators like gender and age are not stand-alone factors but intersectional.
This captivating blog post examines how a more racially diverse Parliament could have impacted Brexit results, emphasising the value of representational diversity in politics.
However, the study might be expanded by looking at examples of how the absence of diversity in decision-making bodies resulted in policies that did not effectively meet, or even misrepresented, the needs and perspectives of various communities.
For example, talks about freedom of movement—a major topic in the Brexit debate—frequently excluded the voices of immigrant communities and people who are impacted by immigration rules. A more diversified Parliament may have pushed these viewpoints to the heart of the issue, perhaps resulting in a more equitable approach to immigration laws and their consequences for both UK and EU residents living in the UK.
Furthermore, the economic consequences of Brexit significantly impacted specific racial and ethnic groups. According to studies, economic difficulties and job losses following Brexit may have a greater impact on minority populations, particularly those in lower socioeconomic groups or in sectors that rely largely on EU links. The emergence of a more racially diverse Parliament may have prioritised these concerns, resulting in measures that reduce detrimental impacts on certain populations.
Incorporating these elements would allow a more thorough examination of how increasing racial diversity in Parliament may have impacted Brexit’s policies, guaranteeing that they are more representative of the nation’s variety and might give rise to more equitable results. This strategy additionally boosts democracy, but it also improves the quality and inclusiveness of policymaking.
The author commences the article posing an important question regarding the influence of diversity on the outcome of the Brexit vote. They highlight the different factors which affect voting patterns including age, education level and race, highlighting that ethnic minorities do not receive the same amount of representation in parliament compared to their white counterparts. The use of graphs helped to show the increase in diversity in parliament. The blog is written well and is thought-provoking.