Have the Liberal Democrats truly fallen from grace? An examination of the party from coalition to present day.

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Historically speaking, the Liberal Democrats were the third strongest political party in Westminster, with their electoral success peaking in 2005, with sixty two seats in parliament, but how have the Liberal Democrats political status and strength as a party degraded from a coalition to the present day, where a general election looms ever closer with only 7% of the public having the intent to vote for them (YouGov, 2024), and what state is the current party in and how are the Liberal Democrats going to move forward into the looming and expected 2024 general election?

The 2010 LibDem-Conservative Coalition

During the 2010 election, the Liberal Democrats’ manifesto was based on liberal ideology, with some of their most notable manifesto promises were free university tuition and a referendum on proportional representation within Westminster (Mason, 2015). These proposed policies targeted demographics that were often ignored by the Conservatives and Labour, such as students and more moderate members of the electorate who didn’t feel represented by either major party. The results of the 2010 election showed that they had a strong presence in certain regions of the UK, in particular the rural highlands and islands of Scotland, and the southwest of England, particularly in Cornwall and Devon. The LibDem’s policy on free University tuition had been relatively consistent across elections, with 45% of students supporting the LibDems in 2010 (Cutts et al, 2010). Due to the results of the 2010 general election leading to a hung parliament, there was a rush for both the Labour and Conservative parties to form a coalition with another party, although the Conservatives had the largest share of seats in Westminster of 306 out of 650 available seats, they did not have a majority, therefore the coalition between Cameron’s conservatives and Clegg’s Liberal Democrats, and with the LibDems’ choice of getting rid off university fees or having a referendum on whether to switch a proportional representation electoral system over first past the post, choosing the referendum tanked the approval ratings of Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats, making them viewed nationally as untrustworthy and liars, making them lose support of their voter base, particularly among students, generally there is a belief that the 2010 coalition and their U-turn on policy such as free tuition, alongside the neglect of more leftwing leaning LibDems ‘killed the LibDem’s chance of electoral success’ (Butler, 2021). These ideas manifested into the results of the 2015 election, where they were only able to obtain eight seats, a significant downgrade from their previous 53 seats. This placed the future of the LibDems in uncertainty about what their place is in British politics.

The LibDems in present day British Politics:

With their coalition with the Conservatives causing the party to lose much of its significance and relevance politically has degraded. Often there is questions to be asked on whether the LibDem’s have a place in contemporary British politics, due to the Labour party pushing to more centre-left politics, particularly under Keir Starmer’s Labour. Since Brexit, the Liberal Democrats remained one of the few staunchly anti-Brexit and pro-Europe political parties, with the major campaign of their 2019 general election policy being that if they won, they would stop Brexit, however to the electorate these claims came across as arrogant and by this point the electorate had become apathetic and tired of the Brexit debate, the pivoting to being a pro-European Union party also isolated some of their previous voter bases, particularly the elderly living in rural areas who were primarily voted in favour of Brexit (Cutts and Russell, 2020). There is also the matter of LibDem policy and ideologies being used by Labour and Conservatives, leaving LibDems being squeezed out of mainstream politics due to them realigning themselves to what would be considered populist policy concerning Brexit (Sloman, 2020), thus fully rendering the LibDem’s fall from political significance.

And what to make of all of this?

In conclusion, it is evident that the LibDem’s political success took a significant U-turn with their 2010 coalition with the Conservative party, and their repositioning to a staunchly pro-EU political party did not resonate with the British public. However, with  at present there is a shift for the LibDem party with the upcoming 2024 general election, with them expecting to gain seats from the Conservative’s blue wall in commuter towns surrounding London, this is a possibility in many rural seats where the LibDem’s received the second highest number of votes in previous elections, this can be seen in recent by-elections, for example in the 2023 by-election in Somerton and Frome, the LibDems gained a seat (Helms, 2023). However it is hard to say whether their recent local successes stem from pro-LibDem sentiment or anti-Tory and Labour sentiment.

Bibliography:

Audickas, L., Loft, P. and Cracknell, R. (2020). UK Election Statistics: 1918-2019 – A century of elections. commonslibrary.parliament.uk. [online] Available at: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7529/.

Butler, C. (2020). When are governing parties more likely to respond to public opinion? The strange case of the Liberal Democrats and tuition fees. British Politics, 16. doi:https://doi.org/10.1057/s41293-020-00139-3.

Cutts, D., Fieldhouse, E. and Russell, A. (2010). The Campaign That Changed Everything and Still Did Not Matter? The Liberal Democrat Campaign and Performance. Parliamentary Affairs, 63(4), pp.689–707. doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/pa/gsq025.

Cutts, D. and Russell, A. (2020). Relevant Again but Still Unpopular? The Liberal Democrats’ 2019 Election Campaign. Parliamentary Affairs, 73(Supplement_1), pp.103–124. doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/pa/gsaa024.

Dommett, K. (2013). A miserable little compromise: Why the Liberal Democrats have suffered in coalition. [online] British Politics and Policy at LSE. Available at: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/a-miserable-little-compromise-why-the-liberal-democrats-have-suffered-in-coalition/.

Helm, T. (2023). Ed Davey: ‘Tactical voting can lock Tories out of power for a generation’. The Observer. [online] 23 Jul. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/23/ed-davey-tactical-voting-can-lock-tories-out-of-power-for-a-generation.

Mason, R. (2015). How much of the Liberal Democrats’ 2010 election manifesto was implemented? [online] The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/15/how-much-of-the-liberal-democrats-2010-election-manifesto-was-implemented.

Sloman, P. (2020). Squeezed Out? The Liberal Democrats and the 2019 General Election. The Political Quarterly, 91(1). doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923x.12816.

YouGov (2024). Voting Intention: Con 20%, Lab 46% (28-29 Feb 2024) | YouGov. [online] yougov.co.uk. Available at: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48794-voting-intention-con-20-lab-46-28-29-feb-2024.